The Basics | The Value of POS Forecasts | Old Habits Die Hard | Definitions and Synonyms | New Product Introductions |
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What is POS / sell-through data?
Instead of historical shipments, Alloy recommends using this measure of end consumer demand to create forecasts
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What is a demand spike?
These types of rapid change led to large-scale OOS for products like toilet paper and home workout equipment during COVID
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What are historical shipments / sell-in?
Most companies today primarily rely on this type of data to create forecasts
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What is a sell-through forecast?
Your POS forecast by a different name
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What is a brand new SKU?
This type of product launch is particularly hard to forecast because it lacks any historical data
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What is sell-in?
A different name for shipments to your retailers
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What are Lost Sales $ and OTIF Fines / Poor Service Levels?
If you under-forecast your business, you're likely to experience these two quantifiable negative business outcomes
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What are Excel or Google Sheets?
Many mid-market companies have built in-house demand planning capabilities using these tools
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What is a forecast baseline?
This terms refers to the forecast(s) you make adjustments to in order to create your demand plan
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What is an adoption period?
New products take a while to ramp up demand during this phase of their lifecycle
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What is Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP)?
This formal process reconciles the demand plan with other operational plans
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What are markdowns, charge-backs, spoils or returns?
These types of fees are paid to retailers to compensate them for unproductive inventory (double points if you can get more than two)
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What are promotions?
With no way to effectively measure their impact on demand, most planners go with their gut and use estimates when forecasting these events
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What is a production plan?
A core output of supply planning
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What is a transition SKU?
A term for replacing a product with a slightly different one that will cannibalize all of the demand for the old one over time
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What is a shipment plan / sell-in plan?
The typical output of a demand plan
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What is Experiments / Test & Learn
Customers use this Alloy feature to measure sales lift from events so that they can more accurately forecast similar events in the future
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What are customer orders?
If there's a meaningful change in consumer demand but you have no way to track your forecast against POS, the demand shift will show up in this form a few weeks later
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What is a purchase order (PO)?
When your customer requests a shipment, it shows up in your system in this form
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What is a door count expansion?
If you launched in Walmart's Northeast region last year and are going nationwide this year, you'd plan using this type of new product introduction workflow
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What is supply planning?
If your prospect is wants help creating a production plan, they're likely looking for this type of solution
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What is a retailer forecast?
Changes to these largely automated predictions are responsible for unpredictable orders that leave brand manufacturers scrambling
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What are sales targets?
Instead of forecasting, some companies create demand plans based on what their revenue goals, using this measure as their baseline
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What is supply plan?
If you were in perfect sync with your customer, your demand plan would be equivalent to their _____
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What is a comparison SKU?
Without historical data, you'd use this type of product to estimate what demand might be
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